(Via Slashdot) Slate on Macroeconomics and Olympic Destiny:

The model projects such big losses for established Olympic powers — and such big gains for nobodies — largely because of the influence of GDP growth. In the past four years, France and Germany have had comparatively little growth compared with, say, India and Mexico. So, France and Germany are projected to lose medals, while India’s total is expected to rise from one to 10 (!) and our neighbor to the south could win 11 medals, up from six in 2000.

This is all good, but given the paltry sums budgeted for our athletes ($30,000 per athlete actually budgeted — and rampant corruption ensures that what actually reaches them is far less), I’ll eat my words if India’s medals count exceeds five (yes, I know India won its first silver today in double-trap shooting).